Forex world

November 30, 2022

XAU/USD eases from two-week high

- Gold price climbs to a two-week high on Wednesday amid renewed US Dollar selling.

- Upward revision of the US GDP print offsets dismal ADP report and fails to impress.

- Traders also seem reluctant ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.

Gold price gains strong positive traction for the second successive day and climbs to a two-week high, during the early North American session on Wednesday. The momentum, however, stalls near the $1,765 area following the release of the US macro data, though the downside seems limited amid a weaker US Dollar, which tends to boost demand for the Dollar-denominated commodity.

Weaker US Dollar continues to lend support to Gold price

The US Dollar remains on track to post its worst monthly performance since September 2010 amid hopes that the Federal Reserve will soften its hawkish stance in the wake of looming recession risks. The current market pricing indicates a greater chance of a relatively smaller 50 bps rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 13-14. This is evident from a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, continues to act as a headwind for the Greenback.

Disappointing ADP report does little to impress US Dollar bulls

The intraday US Dollar selling remains unabated following the disappointing release of the ADP report, showing that the US private-sector employers added 127K jobs in November. The headline print was well below the previous month's reading of 239K and 200K anticipated. This, in turn, tempers expectations for any positive surprise from the official jobs report (NFP) on Friday. That said, an upward revision of the United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) helps offset the disappointment.

Upbeat US GDP report caps gains for Gold price ahead of Powell’s speech

The preliminary report (second estimate) released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy expanded by 2.9% annualized pace during the third quarter against 2.6% reported previously. This helps limit any deeper losses for the US Dollar and caps Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of Chairamn of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's speech, which will be looked upon for clues about future rate hikes and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, any further pullback now seems to find some support near the $1,748 zone (daily low). This is followed by the $1,740-$1,739 zone, which if broken decisively will negate any near-term positive outlook and make Gold price vulnerable. The downward trajectory might then extend to the $1,725 intermediate support, or a nearly two-week low touched last Wednesday, en route to the $1,700 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the daily top, around the $1,765 area, has the potential to lift Gold price to the $1,770-$1,772 region. Some follow-through strength will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and prolong the upward trajectory to the $1,778 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,786 area, or the highest level since mid-August touched earlier this month, above which the XAU/USD could aim to reclaim the $1,800 psychological mark.

Key levels to watch


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