Forex world

October 12, 2023

GBP/USD maintains its position above 1.2300

GBP/USD moves upward on divergence in viewpoints disclosed in the FOMC minutes.

US Dollar remains defensive despite robust wholesale inflation data.

US CPI suggests a decrease in the annual rate for September.

GBP/USD continues the winning streak that began last week, trading higher around 1.2310 during the Asian session on Thursday. Despite robust economic data from the United States (US), the pair is finding upward support on divergence in perspectives revealed in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

The FOMC minutes emphasized the significance of relying on data. There was a suggestion that achieving a substantial increase in inflation would be crucial to garnering consensus for shaping monetary policy decisions.

In September, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a rise, jumping from 2.0% to 2.2%, surpassing the expected 1.6%. Attention in the market now turns to Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with forecasts indicating a potential decrease in the annual rate from 3.7% to 3.6%. Keep an eye out for the upcoming weekly Jobless Claims report as well.

Amidst dovish comments and neutral stances from officials, investors seem to speculate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to abandoning the idea of a rate hike. Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates a cautious stance on rate developments, suggesting that tightening in financial markets "would do some of the work for us."

On the other hand, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman leans towards another rate hike, citing persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target. These divergent views within the Federal Reserve add layers of complexity to the current economic landscape.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing challenges, struggling to maintain ground at around 105.70 at the time of writing. This struggle is attributed to the subdued performance of US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield standing at 4.57% by the latest update.

Market participants will likely keep an eye out for Gross Domestic Product and manufacturing data from the United Kingdom (UK).

UK Gross Domestic Product is predicted to print a positive figure of 0.2% in August, swinging from the previous 0.5% decline, while Manufacturing Production for the same period is seen declining 0.4% against the previous decline of 0.8%.

During the previous week, the British central bank revised down its growth forecast for the July-September period from 0.4% to a mere 0.1%, providing little indication of any inclination to pursue further rate increases.


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