Forex world

April 17, 2023

AUD/JPY looks set to reclaim 90.00

- AUD/JPY is looking to reclaim the 90.00 resistance as the focus shifts to RBA minutes.

- RBA paused the policy-tightening spell due to the quick deceleration in Australian inflation.

- An upbeat performance is expected from China’s GDP report in the first quarter.

The AUD/JPY pair is making efforts in reclaiming the critical resistance of 90.00 in the Asian session. The risk barometer has rebounded from 89.60 after a corrective move as investors are supporting the Australian Dollar ahead of the monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

In April’s policy meeting, RBA Governor Philip Lowe halted the policy-tightening spell and kept interest rates unchanged at 3.6%. The rationale behind pausing the policy-tightening spell was the quick deceleration in Australian inflation in the past two months. Australian inflation has softened sharply to 6.8% from its peak of 8.4% in the past two months. Also, RBA policymakers are confident about further softening of inflation due to rising expectations of a slowdown ahead.

In April’s monetary policy speech, RBA Lowe remained doors open for further rate hikes if inflation continues to remain persistent. Going forward, the minutes from the RBA policy would provide detailed interest rate guidance.

The RBA could sound hawkish in coming sessions as Australian labor market conditions are getting tightened further. Australian Employment (March) data showed that additions of fresh talent were higher than anticipated and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5%. This could force the RBA to reconsider its unchanged policy stance.

On Tuesday, investors will also focus on China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q1) data. As per the consensus, the Chinese economy has expanded by 2.2% vs. a stagnant performance. On an annual basis, the economy is expanded by 4.0% against the 2.9% growth rate recorded earlier. It is worth noting that Australia is the leading trading partner of China and higher Chinese GDP data would support the Australian Dollar.

On the Tokyo front, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) reiterating support for expansionary monetary policy is weighing on the Japanese Yen. The BoJ is required to continue the decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy to keep inflation steadily above 2%.


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