Forex world

December 22, 2022

USD/CHF prints four-day downtrend near 0.9250

- USD/CHF currency pair takes offers to refresh intraday low, down for the fourth consecutive day.

- US Dollar traces a pullback in Treasury yields amid mixed sentiment, holiday mood.

- Firmer US data allowed greenback to recover but hawkish statements in SNB quarterly report challenged USD/CHF bulls.

- US GDP, PCE details will be crucial for short-term directions amid holiday mood.

USD/CHF sellers keep the reins around the mid-0.9200s as they refresh intraday low during a four-day downtrend early Thursday.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) pair bounced off it's weekly low the previous day before retreating from 0.9290. Even so, the quote ended Wednesday on a negative note as hawkish details of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) quarterly report jostled with the mixed US data.

“The level of uncertainty associated with the (Swiss GDP) forecast is still high,” said the SNB in its quarterly economic upside the previous day. The SNB also mentioned that inflation will remain elevated for the time being.

On the other hand, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence jumped to the eight-month high of 108.3 for December, compared to the market forecasts of 101.0 and the revised prior readings of 101.40. However, the US Existing Home Sales for November, 4.09M MoM compared to 4.2M expected and 4.43M prior.

Elsewhere, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s US visit and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s readiness to increase the country’s military potential challenge the risk appetite.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s second unscheduled bond buying and a retreat in the US Treasury yields recently exerted downside pressure on the US Dollar and weigh on the USD/CHF prices.

Given the latest US Dollar pullback and the holiday mood, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) details for Q3 will be important for immediate directions. Forecasts suggest that the US GDP will confirm 2.9% Annualized growth in Q3 while the Core PCE is anticipated to also meet the initial forecasts of 4.6% QoQ during the stated period.

Technical analysis

A sustained U-turn from the 10-DMA hurdle, around 0.9300 by the press time, directs USD/CHF towards a five-week-old descending resistance line, near 0.9175.


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