Forex world

December 09, 2022

Indian Rupee bulls eye 82.00

- USD/INR takes offers to refresh intraday low as riskier assets cheer US dollar weakness.

- Recovery in Crude Oil fails to challenge Indian Rupee buyers amid cautious optimism at home and abroad.

- US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations should be watched for fresh impulse.

USD/INR cheers the US Dollar weakness as it drops to the lowest level in three days, around 81.15 during early Friday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair pays little heed to the firmer Oil price, which generally has inverse relations with the INR moves.

Although the weekly prints tease the greenback buyers, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints a three-day downtrend near 104.60, down 0.21% intraday as traders brace for the next week’s busy schedule comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the inflation data, not to forget today’s consumer-centric figures. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury bond yields while justifying the downbeat US data.

Talking about the latest data, US Initial Jobless Claims matched 230K market consensus for the week ended on December 02, versus the upwardly revised 226K prior. Further, the four-week average also printed 230K figure compared to 229K in previous readings. Earlier in the week, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance deteriorated to $-78.2 billion versus $-79.1 billion expected and $-73.28 billion prior. Further, the final readings of the Unit Labour for Q3 eased to 2.4% QoQ versus 3.5% first estimations.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil prints the first daily gain in six, up 1.08% intraday near $72.35 by the press time, as geopolitical fears join hopes of more demand from China to favor the energy buyers. Even so, the black gold remains near the yearly low marked the previous day.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures and stocks in the Asia-Pacific zone print mild losses while the US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured around the three-month low marked on Wednesday.

Moving on, intraday USD/INR traders should pay attention to preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December, expected 53.3 versus 56.8 prior. Also important to watch will be the University of Michigan’s (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the said month, 3.0% previous readings.

Technical analysis

USD/INR justifies the failure to cross a seven-week-old resistance line, around 82.65 by the press time, as bears approach 50-DMA support, at 81.95 as we write.


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