Forex world

December 13, 2022

GBP/USD pierces 1.2300

- GBP/USD picks up bids to reverse early-day losses, prints five-day uptrend.

- UK Claimant Count Change increased in November, Unemployment Rate rose during three months to October.

- Market’s cautious optimism, mixed signals surrounding US inflation weigh on the US Treasury yields, US Dollar.

- US CPI, speech from BOE Governor Bailey will be crucial for clear directions.

GBP/USD prints mild gains while picking up bids to refresh intraday high during the five-day uptrend to early Tuesday morning in the UK. That said, the Cable pair buyers attack 1.2300 round figure, up 0.20% intraday near 1.2280 heading into Tuesday’s London open, despite mixed employment data.

As per the latest jobs report from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), the monthly Claimant Count Change marked a positive surprise of 30.5K in November versus  -13.3K expected and -6.4K prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate matched 3.7% market forecast during the three months to October. It should be noted that the upbeat average earnings seemed to have favored the GBP/USD buyers.

It’s worth noting that the US Dollar began the day’s trading on the positive side but failed to defend the gains afterward. The reason could be linked to the downbeat US Treasury bond yields amid hopes of softer US inflation data. That said, a slump in the one-year inflation precursor from the New York Federal Reserve joins the softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November to bolster the hopes of downbeat US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which in turn tests hawkish Fed bets and propel the GBP/USD prices.

That said, the US CPI, expected 7.3% YoY, versus 7.7% prior figure, will be crucial for near-term directions. It should be noted that the CPI ex Food & Energy appears to be the key and is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% MoM.

Looking forward, a speech from Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be important for the GBP/USD pair traders as they await the next moves of the “Old Lady”, as the BOE is informally called. Additionally, important will be the monthly prints of the US CPI and Core CPI data, with eyes on the Fed meeting. Given the latest improvement in the UK data and mixed concerns surrounding the US inflation, the odds of the Cable pair’s further upside momentum are higher.

Technical analysis

A one-week-old descending resistance line near 1.2315 restricts immediate GBP/USD upside. The downside moves, however, remain elusive unless the quote breaks the two-week-old ascending trend line, around 1.2270 by the press time.


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