Forex world

November 24, 2022

GBP/USD pokes three-month high around 1.2100

- GBP/USD cheers broad US Dollar weakness to refresh multi-day top.

- Brexit pessimism, mixed UK PMIs probe upside momentum during Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

- Fed Minutes propelled pivot talks and joined downbeat US statistics to weigh on the USD.

GBP/USD takes the bids at the highest levels since August 17 as buyers attack 1.2100 threshold heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers the broad-based US Dollar while paying a little heed to the UK’s Brexit-linked issues and recently mixed data.

The United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) turned down expectations of having a soft corner for the European Union (EU), especially due to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s secret wish. Even so, the Financial Times (FT) said, “Rishi Sunak is under pressure from a broad alliance of British business, legal, worker and environmental groups to drop controversial plans to automatically strip swaths of EU-derived law from the British statute book by the end of next year.” It should be noted that the British Supreme Court rejected the Scottish plea to have a fresh referendum for an independent nation.

On a different page, the UK’s first readings of S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for November reprinted 46.2 figure versus 45.8 market forecasts while the Services counterpart also followed the suit while again flashing 48.8 numbers compared to 48.0 expected figure. Even so, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for the said month improved to 48.3 from 48.2 prior while beating 47.5 market expectations.

Above all, easing fears of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive rate hikes, due to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, seemed to have lured the GBP/USD bulls. As per the recent minute statement, the majority of the policymakers discussed the need of slowing down the interest rate hikes. Additionally weighing on the Greenback were chatters over the “sufficiently restrictive” level of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rates, as indicated in the Fed Minutes.

Additionally fueling the GBP/USD price are the most downbeat US statistics. The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November eased to 47.6 from 50.0 expected and 50.4 prior whereas the Services PMI also followed the suit while declining to 46.1 compared to 47.9 market forecasts and 47.8 previous readings. Overall, the S&P Global Composite PMI for November dropped to 46.3 versus 47.7 expected and 48.2 prior readouts. On the same line, United States Weekly Jobless Claims rose the most since June, to 240K versus 225K expected and 223K prior, which in turn favored the sentiment and drowned the US Dollar.

It’s worth noting that the cautious optimism surrounding China’s ability to overcome the Covid woes and readiness for further stimulus appeared to favor the risk-on mood as of late. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures prints mild gains near the monthly high but the off in the United States due to the Thanksgiving celebration restricts the bond moves. Even so, the scheduled speeches of multiple officers from the Bank of England (BOE) and headlines surrounding Brexit may entertain the GBP/USD pair traders.

Technical analysis

200-day EMA joins the overbought RSI (14) to challenge GBP/USD bulls around 1.2105. The pullback moves, however, remain less problematic unless declining below July’s low near 1.1760.


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